R-Rated Dramas Facing Increased Box Office Hurdles

The following is a selection from Brandon Katz of Greenlight Analytics

No genre's found smooth sailing at the box office lately, and that includes original R-rated dramas. As overall interest in theatrical attendance declines, it gets increasingly difficult to market these non-IP films in a way that helps them break even on their budgets.

Data from Greenlight Analytics uses data around recent R-rated dramas to show the concerns around pre-release tracking.

• Despite the star power of Leonardo DiCaprio and Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another (out this weekend), consumer awareness is below 40% and theatrical intent is at 40%.
• Those figures are similar to – or below – other R-rated titles in recent years like Sinners, Air and Killers of the Flower Moon, which were all liked to various degrees by audiences, but also had a tougher time at the box office than one may expect.
• Greenlight highlights the fact that with awareness having a clear ceiling for these titles (around 40%), it winds up capping box office potential; a dynamic that makes these projects less likely to be pursued by studios (and then makes ensuing R-rated films tougher because there's a diminished market for them).

[Check out more around recent R-rated film trends, over on TVREV]